NABO Medium-Term Fiscal Projection: 2021~2030
Published on 29 October 2021
Published by Estimates & Tax Coordination Division
The government submitted its “FY 2022 Budget Proposal” to the National Assembly on September 3, with projected total revenues of 548.8 trillion won and total expenditures of 604.4 trillion won. Compared to the FY 2021 main budget, they are up by 13.7% or 66.2 trillion won in total revenues, and 8.3% or 46.4 trillion won in total expenditures. The “2021-2025 National Fiscal Management Plans” turned in to the National Assembly alongside the budget proposal include the underlying approaches and goals of fiscal management in the next five years, as well as the revenue allocation by sector. Under these plans, the national debt to nominal GDP ratio is projected to increase from 47.3% in 2021 to 58.8% in 2025.
In response, the National Assembly Budget Office, in its “NABO Medium-Term Fiscal Projection: 2021~2030” report, after taking into account the policy changes reflected in the government’s budget proposal and the national fiscal management plans, made fiscal projections regarding aggregate total expenditures over the next ten years, which include total revenues, total expenditures, fiscal balance, and national debt. The projections also contain policy scenarios of spending controls and revenue expansion, and illustrates that such projections could bring about changes to the future fiscal landscape. Additionally, a vis-à-vis comparison between the outcome of the medium-term fiscal projections and the government's national fiscal management plans is made, and in the appendix, cases of medium-term fiscal projections of major countries (US, UK) are introduced.