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Title NABO Economic Outlook in the Second Half of 2007

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Korean economic condition is expected to be recovered from the recent slowdown owing to the supports from consumer spending, fixed investment, and steady growth in exports in the second half of 2007. Gross Domestic Product in this period will increase 4.7 percent, which is 0.5 percent higher than it in the first half of 2007. Based on this result, we come up with a forecast of 4.5 percent GDP growth in 2007, which is 0.2 percent higher than NABO's forecast in October, 2006. In spite of optimistic estimates of economic growth in the second half, it should be noted that there exist internal downside risks, such as won’s gain against the US dollar and Japanese yen, increase in interest rates, and decline in housing construction, as well as external downside risks such as international oil price hike, trade frictions between major countries due to the deepening global imbalance.
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