Macro and Aggregate Analysis of 2017 Budget Bill
Published October, 2016
The “Macro and Aggregate Analysis of the 2017 Budget Bill” sets out to examine the fiscal aggregates and overall fiscal management in the 2017 budget bill and fund management plan to support the National Assembly for its budget review on the macro and aggregate levels. The highlights of the report are as follows.
The “Outline and Summary of the 2017 Budget Bill” section of the report outlines the highlights of the 2017 budget bill and the analysis summary of the 2017 economic outlook, fiscal management, fiscal soundness, current status of fiscal management by sector, and the budget earmarked for five main investment programs.
As some aspects of the 2017 budget bill make it less of an accommodative fiscal policy, the National Assembly’s close review of the bill is required to promote the efficiency of fiscal expenditure. The government’s effort to promote fiscal soundness can be assessed positively, but more effort is needed to secure a reliable and sustainable revenue basis, promote transparency in adjusting the expenditure structure, and seek measures for reasonable institutional improvement to this end.
The “Focus Fiscal Issue Analysis” section examines major fiscal issues related to the 2017 budget bill formulation, including youth jobs, the low birthrate and aging population, household debt, the transferred financial resources from the central to local governments, and the R&D budget. As these topics are directly related to pending financial issues for 2017 such as economic revitalization, the creation of future growth engines, and the construction of the social safety net, this report intends to suggest desirable directions for fiscal management with additional analysis.
The “Analysis by Type” section investigates new fiscal programs, major programs with budget increases, programs with poor budget execution records on an annual basis, and similar and overlapping programs. The report also includes an analysis of key issues by fund type, as well as programs related to incorporating the correction requests from account settlement; the evaluation of government-funded programs; and the link of law, regulations and guidelines to the budget bill. Analyzing the 2017 budget bill by the eight types of fund is intended not only to focus on specific examinations by ministry and program but also to strengthen the macro and aggregate review of the entire budget bill.