2035 NDC Sectoral Mitigation Pathways Assessment

Published on July 10, 2026
Published by Industry & Energy Analysis Division


 

   On November 11, 2025, the Korean government finalized its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which sets a target of reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 53–61% from 2018 levels by 2035, and submitted it to the UNFCCC secretariat. To date, however, only the final target has been announced, while no year-by-year mitigation pathway through 2035 or detailed sector-specific measures have been presented. In addition, following the Constitutional Court’s decision on August 29, 2024, that provisions of the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth were incompatible with the Constitution, there is a growing need to review the country’s mid- to long-term emissions reduction pathway and codify it into law. Against this backdrop, this report examines current GHG emissions and key mitigation challenges in the power, industry, and transport sectors, which together account for 87% of Korea’s net GHG emissions. It also assesses the emissions mitigation pathway under the 2035 NDC through scenario analysis, with the aim of providing an evidence base for effective policymaking.
   Reducing GHG emissions in the power, industry, and transport sectors will be critical to achieving the more ambitious target set under the 2035 NDC. Although the power sector achieved the largest percentage reduction from 2018 levels by 2024 through decreasing carbon-based generation in the power mix, it must still deliver the largest volume of additional emissions reductions under the 2035 NDC. The industrial sector is highly energy-intensive, and emissions must be reduced by decarbonizing production systems in industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and cement, which remain heavily dependent on carbon-based feedstocks and fuels. In the transport sector, the pace of emissions reduction has recently slowed due to continued demand for internal combustion engine vehicles and the dispersed nature of its emissions sources.
   Using Energy Policy Simulator(EPS), based on system dynamics methodology, this report analyzes three scenarios: (1) a pathway based on the continuation of trends observed as of 2025, (2) an emissions mitigation pathway designed to achieve the 2035 NDC target, and (3) a pathway incorporating additional mitigation measures. Under Scenario 1, if current trends continue without further efforts to reduce GHG emissions, the percentage reduction in net emissions by 2035 relative to 2018 is projected to fall short of the 2035 NDC target. The results for Scenario 2 indicate that achieving the 2035 NDC target would require mitigation measures on par with the strong levels assumed in the 2050 carbon-neutrality scenarios developed by international organizations. The results for Scenario 3 suggest that, even if the 2035 NDC target is achieved, additional mitigation measures will be needed to attain carbon neutrality by 2050.
   For the 2035 NDC to lead to carbon neutrality by 2050, policy measures must go beyond meeting the near-term target and ensure both continuity in the emissions mitigation pathway and effective implementation. The scenario analysis indicates that existing measures are projected to deliver only limited emissions reductions, making additional, proactive mitigation efforts essential to achieving the 2035 NDC target. Moreover, to ultimately achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, practical policies are needed to close the gap between the current and required pace of emissions reduction, taking into account market conditions and technological maturity. To this end, it is important to prevent further asset lock-in and establish a proactive mitigation pathway toward carbon neutrality. Maintaining continuity in this pathway will also require greater R&D investment and an institutional framework that supports a range of technology mixes and policy pathways.