NABO Global Economic Trends & Issues (No. 6)


 

Published on June 26, 2026
Published by Economic Analysis Coordination Division


 

■ Global economic trends
   The global economy continues to expand at a moderate pace, led by the U.S., although the pace of economic recovery remains uneven across countries. The U.S. economy has sustained relatively resilient growth, while the recovery in the Eurozone has weakened slightly and Japan has continued to expand at a modest pace. Major emerging economies are also following a favorable growth path overall, although Russia’s growth has slowed due to the prolonged war and international sanctions. While the recent ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran has somewhat eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, downside risks to the global economy remain should regional conflicts intensify again, potentially leading to higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions.
   International financial markets are exhibiting mixed movements. Long-term government bond yields in the U.S. and Japan have risen, reflecting inflation concerns and increased sovereign bond issuance, while Eurozone sovereign bond yields have declined amid concerns over slowing economic activity and expectations of monetary policy easing. Equity markets are showing growth in both advanced and emerging economies, underpinned by strong performances in global AI- and semiconductor-related firms. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has strengthened on the back of receding expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
 

■ External Economic Issue: Generative AI and Productivity – A Comparison between Korea and Major OECD Economies
   Generative AI is emerging as a key technology capable of enhancing productivity across industries and strengthening medium- to long-term growth potential. An examination of AI exposure across major OECD economies indicates that the sectors of finance and insurance; information and communication services; professional, scientific, and technical services; and public administration and defense exhibit relatively high levels of exposure to AI. In addition, Economies with a large share of highly AI-exposed industries in GDP are expected to realize greater productivity gains from AI adoption. Although Korea’s economy is characterized by a relatively large manufacturing sector, it exhibits high AI exposure, particularly in the finance and insurance and ICT services sectors. As a result, Korea's cumulative productivity gains over the next decade are estimated at 4.4%, comparable to those of the U.S. (4.5%) and the U.K. (4.5%).
   As declining birth rates and population aging increasingly constrain sustainable growth through labor and capital inputs alone, AI is expected to serve as a key driver of Korea’s medium- to long-term growth potential. Accordingly, Korea needs to pursue tailored policies to promote AI investment and adoption in line with industry-specific characteristics, including expanding AI infrastructure in low-productivity service industries and increasing investment in physical AI in the manufacturing sector.