NABO Population and Employment Trends & Issues (No. 6)


 

Published on May 22, 2026
Published by Population & Strategy Analysis Division


 

■ Demographic and Employment Trends and Sustainable Growth
   Recently, despite a rebound in births across all cities and provinces, natural population decline has continued and most areas, except for certain regions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area and Chungcheong Province, are witnessing population decreases. As of April 2026, the registered resident population stood at 51.10 million, down by 80,000 YoY. By age group, the share of the child population was 10.1%, the working-age population 68.2%, and the elderly population 21.7%. Meanwhile, as of February 2026, the number of births increased for 20 months in a row, but the number of marriages declined for the first time in 23 months.
   Employment continues to grow, mainly in health and welfare as well as arts, sports, and leisure services, but the pace of growth remains limited and youth employment continues to be sluggish. In April 2026, employment recorded the lowest growth in 16 months. Despite strong employment in the health and social welfare sector, employment declined in professional, scientific, and technical services as well as in manufacturing, retail, and wholesale, resulting in a net increase of 74,000 jobs (0.4%) YoY. The unemployment rate remained at 2.9%, unchanged YoY. In February 2026, wages jumped by 17.8% YoY thanks to a sharp increase in special payments (140.7%).
   An assessment of Sustainable Development Goals 13, 14, and 15 reveals several challenges. In terms of climate action, the increase in Korea's average temperature and sea surface temperature exceeds the global average, while greenhouse gas emissions remain at high levels. In terms of the conservation of life below water, there are continuing concerns regarding the instability of certain fish stocks including squid and the depletion of resources. In terms of the protection of life on land, the ratios of protected areas within key biodiversity areas remain below the OECD average in terrestrial and mountainous regions, indicating insufficient levels of ecosystem conservation.
 

■ Issue Analysis: North Korea's Economic Rebound and Mid-to-Long Term Growth Prospects
   North Korea's economy has witnessed a short-term rebound, recording positive growth in the range of 3% for two years in a row thanks to the recovery in trade with China, increased cooperation with Russia, and state-driven fiscal spending. However, this growth has been mostly concentrated in the heavy and chemical industry, mainly military-related industries and construction, leaving a significant gap with the real economic conditions experienced by the general public. In addition, sharp increases in foreign exchange rates and the prices of necessities continue to heighten macroeconomic vulnerabilities and instability. Meanwhile, demographic trends show that the country has entered a period of demographic transition marked by low birth rates and population aging accompanied by a shrinking share of the working-age population. The total population is expected to peak in the early to mid-2030s and then decline as growth slows, while the share of the working-age population has already started to decline since its peak in 2021.
   An analysis of the factors driving North Korea’s economic growth reveals that North Korea's 'demographic bonus' vanished sometime around 2020, and instead, a 'demographic onus' is likely to materialize where a shrinking working-age population deters economic growth. As a result, the country's traditional growth model, which relies on labor mobilization, has faced limits. In the mid to long term, North Korea will be required to enhance productivity through capital accumulation and technological innovation to offset declining labor input. In the future, North Korea's sustainable growth will depend on capital accumulation, productivity enhancement, human resources development, and external cooperation, rather than on labor mobilization. This requires the country to lay an institutional foundation for external cooperation, the introduction of new technology, and investment.