NABO Industry Trends & Issues (Issue No. 80)

 

Published on February 25, 2025
Published by Industry & Energy Analysis Division

 

■ Industry Trends
   Despite persistent external uncertainties, the Korean economy is expanding moderately, supported by export growth in flagship industries and increasing production in the service sector. In February 2026, all-industry production increased by 1.8% YoY, which is attributed to a 3.7% YoY increase in service sector production. Exports of the 13 flagship industries reached USD 55.0 billion in December 2025 and USD 52.5 billion in January 2026, representing YoY increases of 13.7% and 37.2%, respectively. In January 2026, international oil prices recorded USD 63.70 per barrel, down 18.6% YoY, reflecting increased crude oil supply from non-OPEC countries including the United States and decreased global demand. The agricultural price index also declined by 8.9% YoY in January 2026, led by falling corn and rice prices amid increased production and weak demand. In contrast, the non-ferrous metals price index rose by 30.2% YoY in January 2026, driven by a weak U.S. dollar, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand instability. In December 2025, the volume of emissions trading based on KAU24 reached 8.049 million tons, an increase of 53.7% MoM, while the closing price was KRW 10,400 per ton, down 5.5% MoM.
 

■ Industry Issues: USD 700 Billion in Exports – Significance and Tasks for Sustainable Growth
   In 2025, Korea’s annual exports surpassed USD 700 billion despite a difficult trade environment characterized by U.S. tariff increases and the spread of protectionism, as well as global geopolitical conflicts. In this regard, to the point of concerns being raised about an “illusion effect” due to increased semiconductor exports, the export growth rate for items excluding semiconductors showed negative growth of -1.0% YoY. Countries that reached the USD 700 billion annual export threshold prior to Korea include the U.S. (2000), Germany (2003), China (2005), Japan (2007), and the Netherlands (2018). Among these, Japan, unlike other countries, has faced long-term export stagnation since reaching the USD 700 billion mark, having failed to appropriately respond to changes in the external environment such as the growth of emerging economies and global digital transformation trends. For Korea to achieve sustainable growth, it is necessary to implement timely measures, such as diversifying export items to mitigate the concentration in specific products, stabilizing supply chains, and strengthening trade risk management.