NABO Population and Employment Trends & Issues (No. 5)


 

Published on February 24, 2026
Published by Population & Strategy Analysis Division


 

■ Demographic & Employment Trends and Sustainable Growth
   Despite increases in births and marriages, the natural population decline persists, while regional disparities in the extent and pace of population aging continue to widen. As of January 2026, the registered resident population stood at 51.11 million, down by 100,000 YoY, extending its downward trajectory. By age group, the population composition consisted of youth at 10.2%, working-age population at 68.4%, and elderly at 21.3%. Compared with the previous year, the youth population share decreased by 0.4%p, while the elderly share rose by 1.2%p.
   While employment has generally maintained an upward trend, signs of a labor market slowdown have emerged in certain indicators, including sluggish youth employment and a rising unemployment rate. In January 2026, the number of employed persons increased by only 108,000 (0.4%) YoY, with growth limited by declines in professional, scientific, and technical services as well as public administration. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4%p YoY to 4.1%. As of December 2025, hiring decreased by 34,000 YoY, as the contraction in construction (-18,000) continued, while modest growth was observed in healthcare and social welfare (+7,000) and education services (+3,000). In November, wages rose by 4.1% YoY amid a sharp increase in special payments (26%).
   Regarding “sustainable growth,” an assessment of SDGs 1–3 confirms that in the poverty eradication sector, the vulnerability of women and the elderly persists. In the area of ending hunger and food security, nutritional vulnerability among youth and price volatility in agricultural and livestock products, driven by high import dependence, were identified. In the health and well-being promotion sector, the rising number of deaths and the burden of chronic diseases emerged as primary challenges.
 

■ Issue Analysis: Occupational Exposure to Generative AI and Recent Youth Employment Trends
   Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the utilization of generative AI in the workplace has rapidly increased, heightening concerns that certain professional and clerical roles could be displaced. Younger workers are believed to be particularly at risk of AI-induced employment disruption. To examine this, the International Labour Organization (ILO) Global Index of Occupational Exposure to Generative AI was applied to Korean occupations to identify those with high exposure to generative AI. High-exposure occupations were found to include numerous professional and clerical roles in fields such as accounting, finance, IT, and journalism.
   However, an analysis of trends in the number of employed persons, job openings, and hires by occupation through 2025 revealed no evidence that generative AI has dampened employment in high-exposure occupations. From the release of ChatGPT through the first half of 2025, employment in these occupations did not contract relative to other roles and may even have exhibited accelerated growth. This trend is consistent across all age groups, including workers aged 34 and under, suggesting that generative AI complements rather than substitutes human labor. In addition, no distinct impact of generative AI was observed in job vacancies or hiring of young workers through December 2025.
   Nevertheless, considering the limitations of the analyzed data and the rapid evolution of AI technology, it is premature to draw definitive conclusions regarding its impact on the labor market at this stage. It is imperative to develop more sophisticated, occupation-specific AI exposure indices and continuously monitor their long-term effects on employment.