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2012~2060 Long-Term Economic Outlook and Fiscal Analysis (English Edition)
Economic Issue / September 12, 2012
    The world economy, which seemed as though it was stepping outside the shadow of 2008 global financial crisis, is once again facing a difficult and unpredictable phase with the recent European Fiscal Crisis. And it has become challenging for Korea to achieve its economic goals. Although Korea’s fiscal balance, which has suffered to a certain degree in managing risk factors, is recovering fast recently, it is bound to face various obstacles in the long run. Population structure transformation due to low birth rate and aging, deceleration of potential growth rate, reduced tax base and sharp increase in welfare expenditure are some of the expected risk factors.
    To soundly manage the nation’s finance, long-term outlooks that make projections beyond 30 years are essential. National Finance Act mandates the administration to include mid and long-term outlook in the National Fiscal Management Plan, which the administration submits to the National Assembly each year. IMF and OECD also recommend production of long-term fiscal projections, and the United States(CBO), European Union, and United Kingdom already published their own long-term fiscal projections.
    As such, NABO has published its own “2012-2060 Long-term Economic Outlook and Fiscal Analysis” for the first time. This report is based on the population projections up to 2060 from Statistics Korea, and projected macro economy based on long-term population structure transformation, total revenue, total expenditure, fiscal balance, and national debt. Also, the report includes analyses on fiscal sustainability and generational burden based on the projection results, and makes recommendations for policy measures to secure fiscal sustainability and to resolve generational inequity.


Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Population Projections
Ⅲ. Macro-economics Outlook
Ⅳ. Projections on Fiscal Baseline
Ⅴ. Fiscal Policies for Sustainability
Ⅵ. Long-term projections for National Pension
Ⅶ. Conclusion

Economic Policy Analysis Division
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